Executive Approval in Times of Crisis: Evidence from the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022

At the time of writing, the world is witnessing the first invasion of a European nation since World War II. With most world leaders involved in some capacity, one would naturally expect this crisis to significantly affect national public opinion. This phenomenon, dubbed a “rally-around-the-flag” effect, was first documented by John Mueller in 1970¹, and reflects the tendency of executives to experience increased approval ratings in the event of a sudden, major international crisis that involves their nation. Pollitik, a project lab born from GSU’s EPIC program aggregates and analyzes opinion polling across the world in order to find definitive answers to questions surrounding executive approval, especially in situations such as these.  After collecting poll results from hundreds of firms around the world and pooling them into the Executive Approval Database (EAD)², I use an aggregation algorithm in order to estimate monthly approval ratings in a given nation. I leverage the breadth of the EAD to determine whether those leaders involved in a major capacity in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war experience the type of rally effect predicted by Mueller and other political scientists. My case selection includes Russia, the United States, France, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine, as these nations are all intensely impacted by these events to varying degrees and have effective polling industries that conduct regular fieldwork. My findings reveal a real and substantive rally effect across these cases. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has seen a 40% net increase since November 2021³. In flash polling directly after the State of the Union, Joe Biden’s ratings have jumped by a net 13 points since before the invasion.⁴ Other leaders have also seen ratings bumps including Emmanuel Macron (+3%) and Olaf Scholz (+2%)⁵. Most notably, Ukraine’s Ratings Group, which has been conducting fieldwork during the war, has documented an incredible 61% increase in Ukrainian approval of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy⁶. As these leaders are accountable to their electorate, it remains incredibly important to monitor public opinion, especially during times of geopolitical tension such as the one we face today.

1. Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson. The American Political Science Review, 64(1), 18–34. https://doi.org/10.2307/1955610
2. Executive Approval Project. “Executive Approval Project.” Executive Approval Project, Executiveapproval.org.
3. Levada Center. “Индикаторы.” Levada Center, www.levada.ru/indikatory/.
4. Marist Poll. “Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and More.” Maristpoll.marist.edu, 4 Mar. 2022, maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-national-poll-bounce-for-biden-following-state-of-the-union-march-2022/. Accessed 8 Mar. 2022.
5. Morning Consult. “Global Leader Approval Ratings.” Morning Consult, morningconsult.com/global-leader-approval/.
6. Sociological Group Rating. “Загальнонаціональне опитування: Україна в умовах війни (1 березня 2022).” Ratinggroup.ua, 1 Mar. 2022, ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_1_marta_2022.html. Accessed 8 Mar. 2022.